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十堰 浙商宏观2023年6月宏观经济预测：预计二季度GDP增速6.7%
核心点
我们认为，经济运作持续了6月的先前趋势，而GDP预计在第二季度为6.7％，全年GDP增长为5.1％。工业企业的当前利润增长率处于压力下，被动驱逐趋势仍在继续。预计库存可能会在第三季度末向下降低，但是如果需求不强，则最初的补货强度可能很弱。总体而言，今年的经济势头的最高点已经过去，而且经济在向上和向下的弹性不是很弹性，但是在分阶段减少税收和减少费用后，公司利润的下降趋势是必须解决的问题。 6月，中央银行实施了削减利率，并正式确认了宽松的货币政策基调。我们继续提醒我们，在企业内源性维修势头不足的情况下，今年下半年的货币政策可能会进一步努力帮助从成本方面的企业利润回收率：储备的需求比率可能会在第三季度降低利率可以在第四季度降低。我们认为，无风险的收益率将在一年内进一步下降，国内利率债券和增长股票将受益。
内容摘要
经济势头的最高点已经过去，GDP的增长率预计将在第二季度为6.7％
我们预计第二季度的实际GDP增长率将为6.7％，而2023年的GDP增长率将为5.1％。我们认为，全年的经济在上下都不是很弹性。分阶段减少税收和减少费用后，公司利润的下降趋势是必须解决的问题。在联邦储备在下半年暂停联邦储备的利率加息之后，中国将受益于国际付款和汇率的提高，开放货币政策领域，形成降低利率的期望以及国内利率债券以及增长股票将受益。
行业略有恢复，服务仍然繁荣
6月的工业生产繁荣反弹了月经，但强度仍然需要加强。利润压力和毁灭性周期仍然使工业企业对扩张持谨慎态度。我们预计，6月份的工业增加价值的同比增长率高于指定规模，为4.0％，在第二季度，同比增长率约为4.3％。尽管6月份的服务业产量略有下降，但它仍然保持了很高的繁荣。接触型和新驱动的服务行业保持了积极的趋势，但房地产销售略微不足。
投资需求继续放缓，制造业仍然面临极大的不确定性
我们预计固定资产投资（不包括农民）的累积增长率为3.9％。其中，制造业投资的同比增长率为5.9％，即基础设施投资的同比增长率（不包括电力，热量，热量，天然气和水生产和供应行业）为6.8％，这一年房地产发展投资的年度增长率为-8.5％。全面的分析和判断，固定资产投资的最大不确定性来自制造业。我们强调，外国需求的增长存在不确定性，并且对国内市场需求的限制不足。最近，某些商品的价格持续下降，制造业市场价格的总体价格下跌，公司效率遇到了许多困难。
社会零售销售的增长率已下降，主要是由于基地的影响
预计6月份消费品的总零售额将同比增长2.5％（先前的价值为12.7％），两年内复利增长率为2.8％。受基地影响的影响，零售额同比下降。龙船节假期期间的文化和旅游市场继续恢复，但与五月天假期相比，旅行的普及有所下降。年中购物节活动在在线消费中发挥了一定的支持作用，并且可以使用诸如通信设备，家具和电器之类的可选耐用产品的消费。汽车市场继续稳步恢复，促销政策继续帮助汽车部门恢复。
高基本期障碍，供应优势保持出口稳定性
2023年6月，以RMB计价的出口同比增长-2.7％，贸易盈余为800亿美元，预计以RMB为单位的进出口将同比增长2.6％。我们继续提醒人们，结构比趋势更重要，并着重于三个结构工业趋势对我国出口的差异影响：
首先，发达经济体中富人与穷人之间的差距扩大导致收入的K型差异，导致消费降解，而全球停滞环境则促进了企业的成本降低策略。我国家的供应链优势和产品成本效益的优势有望抓住份额，包括纺织品和服装，轻型行业，机械和家用电器。家具和其他领域领域的中高端类别可能受益。
其次，在新兴市场国家的经济发展中，随着这些国家的现代化过程，“在中国制造”在海外驱动了我国家的出口增长。
第三是全球科学与技术周期和碳中立过程的进步，预计该过程将从全球衰退环境中工业发展的独立趋势中出现，并推动我国机械和电气产品的出口增长以及新能源类别（新能量车，光伏等）。
CPI仍然很低，PPI下降狭窄
预计CPI在6月份将为-0.1％，每月为-0.1％， +0.2％的同比为0.2％（先前的价值为0.2％），并且CPI将保持较低。肉价已经下降到不同的幅度，蔬菜价格显着上涨，价格明显高于季节性的性能，新鲜水果价格在高水平上波动，肉价和蔬菜价格对冲，CPI食品仍然稳定。预计PPI在6月会继续下降，但下降会缩小。煤炭价格在6月继续下跌，钢铁价格在底部稳定下来，原油价格向下波动，非有产金属升起并以混杂的方式下跌。总体而言，工业产品的价格上涨仍然缺乏需求方面的驱动力。
失业压力略有上升，总体就业基本上是稳定的
预计6月份接受调查的国家城市的失业率将为5.3％，比上一个价值上升0.1个百分点。失业压力将略有上升，在毕业季节，年轻人口将面临分阶段的压力。一方面，国内旅行强度已经开始恢复正常，相应的三级行业，例如住宿和餐饮，运输和其他三级行业，略有汇聚；另一方面，工业企业的利润继续处于压力下，需求不足和生产能力过多的行业正面临着缩水就业需求的问题。
财务数据可能处于压力下
随着去年6月所有财务数据的基础的大幅增长，我们预计今年6月的数据可能会受到压力。从当前到7月中旬的数据发布，它将逐渐影响市场情绪，我们提醒您注意。预计6月份，元人民币贷款将增加2.2万亿美元，大约同比下降约6100亿，相当于下降0.5个百分点，至10.9％；预计6月份的社会融资将增加33.9万亿美元，大约同比减少约1.8万亿美元。增长率从上一个价值下降了0.7个百分点，至8.8％，这是当年的新低点。在该结构中，预计年度拖累将主要来自政府债券，信贷和未验证的银行接受账单；尽管公司债券，信托贷款，股票融资和托付贷款可能同比略高。
对于M2，去年的基础逐渐上升，今年6月的信贷相对较弱，财政支出也受到某些限制，预计6月的M2增长率从上一个价值下降了0.8个百分点，至10.8 ％。对于M1，房地产销售迟钝，居民的消费活动有所不同。去年基本的增长，预计6月份的M1的增长率将从上一个值继续下降1.6个百分点，至3.1％。我们预计，在发布较弱的6月数据，再加上高频经济数据之后，同比衰弱，尤其是7月的毕业季节可能会增加失业压力，并且期望进一步的货币政策缓解将逐渐增强。我们仍然认为，下半年有综合的储备要求降低和利率，第三季度储备要求降低比率的可能性很高。
风险警告
主要力量之间的比赛超出了预期。地缘政治状况的变化超出了预期。
文本
1经济势头的最高点已经过去，GDP的增长率预计在第二季度为6.7％
我们判断，今年的经济势头的最高点已经过去，而6月份的制造PMI仍低于关键点。原因是，不仅存在过去几个月的恢复和发展形成的基本效应，而且还反映了市场需求不足的问题和经济发展的内源性驱动力，需要进一步改善。总体而言，市场需求保持了收缩趋势，房地产市场疲软和企业利润下降的问题尚未得到显着改善，再加上价格持续下降，导致公司利润压力，市场信心仍然不足。
根据第二季度以来的每月数据以及高频宏变量中包含的信息，我们预计第二季度的实际GDP增长率为6.7％，而2023年的GDP增长率将为5.1％。我们认为，全年的经济在上下都不是很弹性。分阶段减少税收和减少费用后，公司利润的下降趋势是必须解决的问题。在联邦储备在下半年暂停联邦储备的利率加息之后，中国将受益于国际付款和汇率的提高，开放货币政策领域，形成降低利率的期望以及国内利率债券以及增长股票将受益。
2行业略有恢复，服务仍然繁荣
6月的工业生产繁荣反弹了月经，但是利润压力和毁灭性周期仍然使工业企业对扩张持谨慎态度。我们预计，工业增加价值的同比增长率高于指定规模的规模，达到4.0％，第二季度的同比增长率为4.3％。
从高频数据来看，与上个月相比，总体工业生产繁荣略有反弹，但仍需要加强强度。汽车半钢轮胎运营速率，高炉运营速度，可乐烤箱的生产率和钢筋生产略有反弹，而PTA从上个月下降。在工业生产恢复和高温天气的影响下，八个南部省份发电厂的平均每日煤炭消费量比上个月显着增加。
但是奢侈品修复收入高吗，尽管目前的工业企业利润增长率已经恢复，但面临巨大压力。工业库存周期正在驱逐过程中，对工业生产的内部和外部需求的支持仍然有所区别，仍然有必要稳定期望并增强信心。在国内需求方面，由于公司利润的压力，制造业投资的强度下降了。房地产追回的可持续性很差，6月30日在30个城市的商业住房交易领域跌倒；基础设施投资相对有弹性，但是6月的建筑行业业务活动指数与上个月相比。有些人有所下降，国内高温天气可能会对形成物理基础设施工作量的形成产生一定的负面影响。尽管6月份的PMI新订单指数略有反弹，但仍处于收缩范围内，这表明需要加强制造业市场需求的恢复强度。在外国需求方面，新的出口订单在6月进一步下降，反映出尽管出口具有结构性亮点，但它们通常会承受下降的压力。
尽管6月份的服务业产量略有下降，但它仍然保持了很高的繁荣。接触型和新驱动的服务行业保持了积极的趋势，但房地产销售略微不足。在龙船节，旅游，离线消费等节日效果的驱动下，主要国内主要城市的地铁乘客流量正在高水平运行，国内航班的数量已经反弹，反映了居民'旅行意愿仍然很强，铁路运输，航空运输，餐饮等。行业业务活动有望保持良好的繁荣。就货运物流而言，供应商的交付时间指数仍在扩展范围内，这表明制造业中原材料供应商的交付时间继续加速。服务行业的新驱动力的发展保持了积极的趋势，电信，广播和电视，卫星传输服务，互联网软件和信息技术服务等行业处于繁荣状态。
投资势头略有减弱，固定资产投资的累积增长率预计为3.9％。
我们预计，从1月到6月，国家固定资产投资（不包括农民）的累计增长率为3.9％。其中，制造业投资的同比增长率为5.9％，即基础设施投资的同比增长率（不包括电力，热量，热量，天然气和水生产和供应行业）为6.8％，这一年房地产发展投资的年度增长率为-8.5％。根据综合分析，固定资产投资最大的不确定性来自制造业。 6月的制造采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0％，比上个月增长0.2个百分点，制造业繁荣水平提高了。我们强调，外国需求的增长存在不确定性，并且对国内市场需求的限制不足。最近，某些商品的价格持续下降，制造业市场价格的总体价格下跌，公司效率遇到了许多困难。
首先，公司利润尚未进入向下渠道。从1月至2023年5月，在41个主要工业产业中，14个行业的总利润同比增长，1个行业保持不变，有24个行业下降，有2个行业从利润转变为亏损。总体而言，制造业企业对严重且复杂的国际环境和需求不足面临重大限制，并且在继续恢复公司利润方面存在许多困难。根据行业，非金属矿物产品行业下跌了25.9％，纺织业下降了27.8％，农业和边线食品加工行业下跌了39.5％，计算机，通信和其他电子设备制造业下跌了49.2％，下跌了49.2％，化学原材料和化学产品制造业下降了52.4％，非有产金属冶炼和滚动加工行业下跌了53.0％，石油，煤炭和其他燃料加工行业下跌了92.8％，而铁质金属冶炼和滚动加工行业从利润转变为损失。
其次，基础设施投资有效地支持了投资需求的稳定增长。基础设施投资（不包括电力，热量，天然气和水生产和供应行业）同比增长7.5％。其中，铁路运输行业的投资增长了16.4％，水库管理行业的投资增长了11.5％，公路运输行业的投资增加了4.4％，公共设施管理行业的投资增加了3.9％。我们认为，从2023年，主要项目主要集中在“ 14五年计划”中的102个主要项目上，从诸如新启动项目的指标的角度来看，计划对计划项目的项目进行全面投资，随后仍然有很大的潜力投资。
第三，房地产投资仍处于结构调整的关键关键时刻。从1月到5月，全国房地产开发投资为4570亿元人民币，同比下降7.2％；其中，住宅投资为3480.9亿元人民币，下降了6.4％。我们判断，随后的房地产法规政策将重点关注供应实体，即房地产公司。核心要求是低杠杆，低债务和低营业额。其他要求可以逐步逐步逐步逐步。
1）制造业投资继续放慢速度，从1月到6月，制造业投资的累积增长率预计将为5.9％。
我们预计从1月到6月的制造投资累计增长率，至5.9％。 6月，由于市场需求不足和第一季度制造业迅速恢复等因素，PMI继续低于关键点，这可能会进一步抑制投资需求。
首先，中小型企业的资本支出尚未得到显着恢复。中国中小型企业协会发布的数据最近显示，5月的中小型企业发展指数为88.9，比上个月下降0.1点。作为反映中小型企业经济运作的全面指数，中小型企业发展指数已下降，表明中小型企业仍处于流动后的恢复期内，并且是稳定的基础恢复不是牢固的。
其次，高科技制造业主要投资于制造业。从1月至2023年5月，对高科技制造业的投资同比增长12.8％，从1月到4月，速度下降了2.5个百分点，但它仍然比制造业投资高6.8个百分点。其中，对医疗工具，设备和仪器制造业的投资，电子和通信设备制造业分别增加了18.8％和16.1％。
展望下半年，我们判断经济结构的调整正面临着一定的压力，消费需求（例如旅行和旅游业）逐渐被释放，但是公司信心仍然不足，经济尚未恢复其潜在的增长利率和制造业可能面临许多挑战奢侈品修复收入高吗，随后的私人投资仍面临限制，例如公司效率下降和市场期望不稳定。从1月至2023年5月，全国大型工业企业的总利润为26688.9亿元人民币，同比下降18.8％。我们认为，随后的利润增长率不足以抑制企业对扩大生产的热情，再加上低水平的工业能力利用率和公司利润的增长，从工业产品价格的迅速和进一步下跌来判断，制造业的生产行业拥有较低的愿意扩大供应。全面的分析和判断，随后的制造业资本支出取决于中和下游需求方的恢复坡度及其相应的可持续性。预计制造投资将在2023年波动和下降。
2）土地销售收入不足，高温和降雨干扰以及基础设施的边际压力
从2023年1月到2023年6月，基础设施投资（统计局）预计将同比增长6.8％。我们继续提醒自己，注意不足的土地销售收入以及厄尔尼诺现象在基础设施建设上的干扰。预计基础设施可能会在第2季度和第三季度结束时处于边际压力下，并专注于将来引入准金融工具。
已经实施了财政进步，主要项目加速了，基础设施稳步增长。自2023年以来，在提高质量和效率的积极财政政策的背景下，财政支出已与各省的主要项目进行了预先合作，以加速建设开始。从需求方面，基础设施投资已成为推动经济增长的重要方法。一方面，1-5每月财政支出增长率达到5.8％，高于预算目标5.6％，支出进展达到38.1％，是2020年流行病以来的最高水平；另一方面，截至2023年4月下旬，该省已为主要地方项目发布了一项投资计划。根据我们的评论，2023年在2023年在19个省的主要项目投资增加了6％，该项目的年度经济增长目标高于5％，这将成为稳定增长的重要支持。
土地销售收入不足和天气因素不足以扰乱基础设施。我们已经开始提醒自己注意土地销售收入不足以及厄尔尼诺现象对未来基础设施的干扰。逻辑一直在实现。一方面，自2023年以来，政府基金账户的土地销售收入的增长率一直处于相对较低的水平。截至5月，与2022年相比，它的降低了近4000亿元。债券具有一定的效果。但是，考虑到项目收益率的高要求和使用特殊资金，很难完全填补狭窄基础设施的土地销售收入不足的干扰；另一方面，厄尔尼诺现象逐渐对我的国家产生了重大影响。随着极端高温天气和大规模降雨的出现，基础设施的建设将在不同的水平上受到影响。 6月，我的国家显示出明显的“北部高温和南部的雨天”的天气。现象是，北京，天津，内蒙古和其他地方的温度比往年的平均水平高4-6度，与往年相比，中国中部和南方的降雨量也升高。
随后的土地销售收入不足以关注准金融努力，而天气因素仍然是第三季度的重要变量。考虑到土地销售收入是在分期付款中支付的，无论是去年房地产公司购买的土地的最终付款还是当前的土地交易“首付”，总体绩效相对较弱。我们预计，土地销售收入将在一段时间内保持压力，并将受到基础设施的影响。结合2022年的政策经验，我们认为，随着上半年新的特别债券的集中发行，Q3基础设施基金的资金可能会有压力，并且很有可能会继续继续启动基于政策的财务工具和其他准金融工具来补充资金。 ，服务基础设施投资。此外，厄尔尼诺现象将继续发酵，Q3中的天气因素仍然是基础设施的关键变量。结合中央气象管理的预测，我们预计在6月和8月，海伦吉安中部和北部的温度将略低于上一年的同一时期，该国的大多数地区将在该国，除了在海伦吉安中部和北部的温度下。温度接近一年中的同一时期。考虑到高温可能会导致分阶段悬挂的户外露天操作，而南方极端高温的可能性则降低，但可能会发生大规模降雨。我们认为，是否是极端的高温天气会导致分阶段暂停室外建筑的悬架。或大规模降雨会导致基础设施和住房建设中的中断，这可能会给基础设施投资带来一定的负面障碍。
3）预计从一月到六月的房地产投资的累积增长率为-8.5％，投资增长率继续承受压力
预计从2023年1月到6月的房地产开发投资的累积增长率将为-8.5％，并且基于先前的价值，仍然会有进一步的向下压力。自6月以来，房地产行业的市场环境并没有显着改善，两年来房地产销售的复合增长率仍然迟钝。
从销售方面，六月的销售数据仍然迟钝。截至6月28日，在30个大型和中型城市的商业住房销售区的累计增长率已下降到3.5％，并且持续下降，而上次结束时的水平为14.0％月。先前的报告指出，今年的商业住房销售的高增长率分为高增长率，主要是由于2022年同期流行病造成的基本效应低。 4月和5月在主要和中型城市的商业住房是两年。与2022年下半年相比，化合物分别为-21.0％和-16.9％。
4社会零售销售的增长率下降，主要是由于基地的影响
预计6月份消费品的总零售额将同比增长2.5％（先前的价值为12.7％），两年内复利增长率为2.8％。受基地影响的影响，零售额同比下降。龙船节假期期间的文化和旅游市场继续恢复，但与五月天假期相比，旅行的普及有所下降。年中购物节的活动在消费中发挥了一定的支持作用，并且消费可选的耐用商品，例如通信设备，家具和设备。汽车市场继续稳步恢复，持续的促销政策为汽车行业提供了帮助。
文化和旅游市场继续稳步恢复，但与五月假期相比，旅行的普及量下降了。根据文化和旅游部的说法，在龙船节假期期间，有1.06亿个国内旅游旅行，获得了373.1亿元的国内旅游收入，分别恢复到2019年同期的112.8％和94.9％，旅游业收入略有稍微稍微稍微稍有旅游业。与2019年同期相比。不足。人事流量的强度保持良好，民航的客运航班数量在2019年底超过了同一时期，地铁乘客数量保持了历史悠久的高度。
年中购物节在推动消费方面发挥了一定的作用。电子商务和离线物理零售已经发起了各种消费促进活动，以帮助恢复对通信设备，家具和设备等可选耐用商品的消费。在销售“ 618”的前十个品牌中，有4个家用电器品牌，3个数字产品品牌和1个家具品牌。该行业（例如家用电器，住宅家具和房屋装饰）同比增长，Gree的销售额同比增长62％，而Lin的家具同比增长77％。 Meituan's real-time retail platform Meituan Flash Sales Digital Home Appliances increased by 1292% year-on-year; 's national store customer flow increased by more than 200% year-on-year, and the number of one-stop shopping orders for home appliances and home decoration doubled, and purchase orders for purchases of more than 50,000 yuan increased by 153 years前。 ％。 In addition, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Hubei and other places have issued consumer coupons for catering, tourism, home appliances, etc. to drive offline consumption, and local policy support has played a certain role in promoting and guiding short-term consumption activities.
The auto market has remained stable, with mid-month shopping festival promotions combined with local subsidies and Dragon Boat Festival factors, and terminal retail has heated up month-on-month. According to the China Passenger Car Association, it is expected that the retail sales of passenger cars in narrow sense in June will be 1.83 million, 5.0% month-on-month, of which the retail sales of new energy are expected to be 670,000, an increase of 15.5% month-on-month. On the one hand, manufacturers' promotions at the end of the quarter have continued to be highly discounted. In mid-June, the overall discount rate of the passenger car market was 17.8%, slightly expanding from the end of May. On the other hand, national policies continue to help the automobile market. The Ministry of Commerce issued the "Notice on Organizing and Car Promotion Fee Activities" on June 8 to carry out the "Hundred Cities Linkage" Automobile Festival and "Thousand Counties and Ten Thousand Towns" new energy vehicles in the second half of the year. Consumer season activities. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued the "Notice on Carrying out the 2023 New Energy Vehicle Rural Activities" on June 15, and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Further Building a High-Quality Charging Infrastructure System" on June 15 to promote the new energy vehicle industry Stable development.
5 High cardinal phase disturbance, supply advantages to maintain stability of exports
It is estimated that RMB-denominated export growth rate will be -2.7% in June 2023, with a trade surplus of US$80 billion. Considering the high base caused by the epidemic backlog of orders from May to July 2022 to concentrated overseas trips, it is expected that export data from May to July 2023 will be affected by the high base, and the marginal pressure will be under. From the compound growth rate of two years, we can better grasp the data changes. ; Looking forward to the second half of the year, we continue to remind that supply advantages will help maintain exports, and the structure is more important than trends, and pay attention to the differential impact of the three structural industrial trends on my country's exports: First, the widening gap between the rich and the poor in developed economies has led to income K Type differentiation has led to consumption downgrades, and the global stagflation environment promotes corporate cost reduction strategies. my country's supply chain advantages and product cost-effective advantages are expected to seize the share, and mid-to-high-end categories in the fields of textiles and clothing, light industry, machinery, home appliances and furniture may benefit; Second, in the economic development of emerging market countries, with the modernization process of these countries, "Made in China" overseas drives my country's export growth. The third is the advancement of the global science and technology cycle and carbon neutrality process, which is expected to emerge from the independent trend of industrial development in the environment of global recession, and drive the export growth of my country's mechanical and electrical products and new energy categories (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, etc.).
Against the backdrop of overseas stagflation, we continue to remind ourselves to pay attention to the pull of my country's supply resilience on exports:
First, overseas supply faces multiple constraints and impacts, and its vulnerability has increased. my country's supply chain advantages are expected to further improve with the economic recovery. After the epidemic, it can be verified that private enterprises' exports have improved significantly. From January to May, private enterprises' exports increased by 16.2%, accounting for The total export value was 63.3%, which was significantly higher than that of state-owned and other departments during the same period.
Second, in the environment of global stagflation, my country's supply advantages will be highlighted in the aspects of product cost-effectiveness, supply chain costs, and corporate bargaining power improvement, becoming a key source of export resilience. This supply-side advantage is more prominent at the industrial level. On the one hand, in labor-intensive traditional advantageous industries in my country (light industry, textiles, clothing, furniture, home appliances, etc.), my country's relevant fields accounted for more than 30% of the HS classification in 2019; on the other hand, my country's industrial policy encouragement and high With the continuous development of technology manufacturing, exports of mechanical and electrical products also occupy an important position in the world. In addition, thanks to the improvement of bargaining power brought by supply advantages, my country's export price index has continued to be higher than the import price index for the same period since 2022, and it is also reflected. As of May 2023, the export and import price index reached 105.3 and 95 respectively (Part 1) The difference between export and import prices was more than 10 percentage points, the highest level since 2016.
Third, overseas supply has been impacted to varying degrees. The pressure on overseas supply has further increased, and the rapid tightening of monetary policies in developed economies has led to a series of financial stability problems in the short term. The disturbances of high interest rate environment for enterprises, non-bank institutions, etc. have not been eliminated. The potential credit contraction has been a major supply for overseas companies. Incremental shocks, disturbances such as strikes and supply chain reshaping are still there, and the increase in overseas supply vulnerability also highlights my country's supply advantages.
Structure is more important than trends, and focus on industrial logic. Based on the logic of the previous article, compared with the overall export trend, we suggest that we should pay more attention to structural performance. Combined with overseas economic performance and industrial development trends, we continue to remind that we should pay more attention to the three major export performances:
1) Focus on export opportunities brought by the downgrade of overseas consumption and corporate costs. Three years of epidemic and the huge liquidity injection in developed economies in overseas has intensified the global gap between the rich and the poor. The K-type income differentiation in developed economies has led to the coexistence of consumption upgrading and consumption downgrade. The former maps the positive growth and price increase of luxury goods consumption, while the latter It drives consumers to prefer "cost-performance" products. Previously, in the context of high inflation in the 1970s, Japan-made cars, furniture, appliances, audio and video equipment, etc. rely on cost-effective advantages to seize the US market. In addition, under the background of global stagflation, companies face challenges and actively promote the cost reduction strategy. We have sorted out that more than a quarter of US stock companies began to reduce their operating costs in Q4 2022.
Against the backdrop of overseas consumption downgrades and corporate costs reductions, the export opportunities brought by my country's cost-effectiveness advantages behind its supply advantages need to be paid attention to. On the one hand, it is due to the strong stability of my country's supply chain, in production, logistics, warehousing, etc. The stability of the link will help reduce the overall supply chain cost. On the other hand, as the world's largest manufacturing power, my country has outstanding advantages in the equipment manufacturing and consumer manufacturing industries, especially textiles and clothing, light industry, machinery, and home appliances. High-end categories such as furniture are expected to benefit.
2) Pay attention to the economic development of emerging market countries and the export support brought by "Made in China" overseas. Emerging market countries are also an important emerging growth point for my country's exports, especially the Belt and Road countries and ASEAN regions. From January to May, ASEAN was my country's largest trading partner, and my country's exports to ASEAN to ASEAN increased by 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.4% during the same period, my country A total of 3.44 trillion yuan was exported to countries along the "Belt and Road", an increase of 21.6%. We believe that my country's exports to emerging market countries have strong performance. On the one hand, some emerging market countries with relatively rich resources have benefited from the positive effects brought by the commodity bull market, and the economy is in a stage of rapid growth. Combined with the theory of goose formation and my country as the world's number one production From the perspective of manufacturing countries, emerging market countries have continuously increased their dependence on "Made in China" from the perspective of industrial development and actual demand, which has correspondingly driven the export of relevant categories in my country.
On the other hand, in recent years, my country has adhered to the strategy of opening up to the outside world and expanding imports, upholding the banner of "holding high the banner of peace, development, cooperation and win-win, abiding by the foreign policy purpose of maintaining world peace and promoting common development, and adhering to the foundation of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence "As a foreign policy of developing friendly cooperation with all countries, promoting the construction of a new type of international relations, and promoting the building of a community with a shared future for mankind," as an important representative of the third world and emerging market countries, the voice and weight in the international order system have been increasing year by year, and a great country has been The step-by-step improvement of status and diplomatic positions has also promoted "Made in China" to a certain extent, thus driving export growth. We believe that with the advancement of modernization in emerging market countries, my country's manufacturing products and enterprises will continue to perform positively overseas.
3) Pay attention to the interpretation of the new round of technological cycle and the global carbon neutrality process. The global carbon neutral science and technology revolution has a unique industrial development logic, which is not synchronized with the global macroeconomic cycle. When the economy is in a downward stage and industrial development is in a positive growth stage, its related categories are also more active, and electromechanical products account for nearly 60% of my country's exports. The proportion, its industrial changes are highly correlated with the technology cycle, especially the global semiconductor cycle; the semiconductor cycle has approached the bottom turning point in the near future. With the further development of terminal application scenarios such as ChatGPT and cloud computing, big data, and Internet of Things, future inventory construction The bottom-up recovery and the significant increase in computing power demand are expected to drive the semiconductor cycle to bottom out and rebound, thereby driving the export growth of related categories. In addition, under the global carbon neutrality process, my country has super capabilities in the field of new energy manufacturing, and exports in new energy-related fields such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics have maintained a high growth potential. The "new three" exports remain relatively high in 2023. High growth rate.
Weak repair combined with low base, imports have steadily rebounded. It is expected that RMB-denominated imports will grow by 2.6% year-on-year in June 2023. Domestic demand determines imports. At present, my country's domestic demand is still in a weak recovery stage. In mid-June, the PMI index of manufacturing in manufacturing recorded 49%, a slight rebound of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, but it is still below the boom and bust line, and the market demand recovery is slow. The endogenous growth momentum of the economy is relatively weak, with the new order index rising by 0.3 percentage points to 48.6%, still below the boom and bust line, real estate investment is still under pressure, offline consumption heat returns, and finished product inventory in June fell by 2.8 percentage points to 46.1 %, the inventory of raw materials fell by 0.2 percentage points to 47.4%, showing the characteristics of passive destocking, and the inventory destocking speed has accelerated. We believe that my country's economic momentum has passed in 2023, the economy is in a weak recovery state, and large-scale countercyclical policies are difficult to go. The gradual recovery of domestic demand determines that the growth rate of imports is likely to fluctuate at a low level and gradually rebound. We expect RMB-denominated imports in June The year-on-year growth rate was 2.6%.
6 CPI remains low, PPI decline narrows
It is expected that CPI in June will be -0.1% month-on-month and +0.2% year-on-year (the previous value is 0.2%), and CPI will remain low. Meat prices have dropped to varying amplitudes, vegetable prices have risen significantly, prices are significantly stronger than seasonal performance, fresh fruit prices fluctuate at high levels, meat prices and vegetable prices have hedged, and CPI food items remain stable. It is expected that PPI in June will continue to decline, but the decline narrows. Coal prices continued to fall in June, steel prices stabilized at the bottom, crude oil prices fluctuated downward, and non-ferrous metals rose and fell in a mixed manner. Overall, the price increase of industrial products still lacked the driving force on the demand side.
1) Meat prices decline, CPI stabilizes at a low level
It is expected that CPI in June will be -0.1% month-on-month and +0.2% year-on-year (the previous value is 0.2%). Pork prices remained at a narrowing trend, beef prices fell significantly, vegetable prices continued to rise, fresh fruit prices fluctuated at high levels, meat prices and vegetable prices hedged, and CPI food items remained stable. At the beginning of the graduation season, the cultural and tourism market continued to recover, but the popularity of travel has declined compared with the May Day holiday, and the core CPI has stabilized overall.
Meat prices have declined to varying degrees. Q2 is the off-season for meat consumption, and pork prices have maintained a trend of narrowing decline. The growth rate of live pig output in the country has slowed down, and the pressure of oversupply has been released. Pork demand rebounds in the second half of the year, and pig prices are expected to gradually rebound in Q3. The price of beef has dropped significantly, and the overall supply is oversupply. From January to May, the cumulative amount of imported beef in my country was 8.0% year-on-year, but the cumulative import amount was -4.2% year-on-year, and the year-on-year in May was -29.0 ％。 The price of imported beef continued to decline, and the price fell. Transmit to downstream markets. Vegetable prices continued to rise, and the vegetable supply chain broke out in June. Vegetables from the early stage were delisted, and vegetables in the northern production areas were not connected smoothly. The prices of cabbage and cabbage rose significantly, which played a certain role in driving CPI.
Starting from the graduation season, the cultural and tourism markets continued to recover steadily, but the popularity of travel has declined compared with the May Day holiday. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic tourism revenue recovered to 94.9% in the same period in 2019 at a comparable level, with a slight shortage overall, and the price growth trend of accommodation and other related services has declined.
2) Industrial production recovers, PPI decline narrows
It is expected that PPI in June will continue to decline, but the month-on-month decline will narrow. Coal prices continued to fall in June, steel prices stabilized at the bottom, crude oil prices fluctuated downward, and non-ferrous metals rose and fell in a mixed manner. Overall, the price increase of industrial products still lacked the driving force on the demand side.
国内工业生产强度有所回升，工业品价格环比跌幅收窄。6月高炉开工率有所回升，主要钢厂螺纹钢、粗钢等下游钢材产量与上月基本持平，纯碱开工率保持高位，地产竣工链表现依然优于新开工链。6月中电联企业日均发电量显著抬升，但主要受北方高温天气影响，居民用电需求较大，南方八省电厂日耗煤量先升后降，从侧面说明工业用电强度一般。基建方面，水泥发运率、石油沥青装置开工率保持低位，北方高温影响基建项目开工强度。另外，汽车全钢胎、半钢胎开工率、涤纶长丝织机开工率环比小幅回升。
7 失业压力小幅上升，整体就业基本稳定
预计6月全国城镇调查失业率为5.3%，较前值上升0.1个百分点，失业压力小幅上行，毕业季青年人口面临阶段性压力。一方面，国内出行强度开始向常态化回归，与之对应的住宿餐饮业、交通运输业等第三产业吸纳劳动力的作用边际收敛；另一方面，工业企业盈利持续承压，部分需求不足和产能过剩行业面临用工需求收缩的问题。
16-24岁青年人口就业结构数据仍有隐忧。5月16-24岁人口调查失业率数据为20.8%，续创新高。根据历史数据判断，随着7-8月毕业季到来，青年人群失业率往往会出现季节性冲高。同时，经济转型过程中所需要的劳动力与教育体系的匹配度欠佳，就业市场出现结构性错配，青年结构性失业压力值得关注。
就业优先政策持续发力，一定程度上缓解大学生毕业季压力。今年高校毕业生人数达到1158万人，高校毕业生已成为就业工作的重中之重。一方面，6月16日教育部组织开展“2023年高校毕业生就业创业政策宣传月”活动，补贴用人单位、支持自主创业、鼓励基层就业等。 6月25日，人社部启动2023年高校毕业生等青年就业服务攻坚行动。另一方面，6月14日，八部门发文部署职业教育产教融合赋能提升行动，该行动将在全国培育一万家以上产教融合型企业，以解决人才培养和产业发展结构性错配question.
“以工代赈”等政策提振就业，带动困难群众就业增收。今年以来，国家发展改革委联合财政部分批下达2023年以工代赈中央专项投资73亿元，占年度拟下达投资规模的90%以上。该项目预计发放劳务报酬20余亿元，可吸纳带动20多万群众参与工程项目建设，人均增收一万元左右。“以工代赈”政策可吸纳更多困难群众特别是农村脱贫人口、易返贫对象、返乡农民工等群体在家门口务工就业，有助于进一步解决困难群众就业难与就业增收问题。
预计2023年6月信贷新增2.2万亿，社融新增3.39万亿，增速分别为10.9%和8.8%
预计2023年6月人民币贷款新增2.2万亿，由于去年的高基数，同比将大幅少增约6100亿，对应增速回落0.5个百分点至10.9%，我们对数据相对悲观并提示其可能继续低于市场一致预期。去年6月的疫后修复期，信贷实现2.81万亿的较高基数，使得今年6月数据大概率同比少增，且一季度的大规模投放或对后续月份有所透支，在当前经济弱修复期，预计实体部门内生动能及企业信贷需求仍然偏弱；居民端，6月地产销售高频仍然低迷，消费活力也有待释放，而去年6月居民贷款数据恢复至较高水平，预计今年将同比少增。
从票据利率角度观察月内信贷状况，相比对流动性的指示性意义，票据更具信贷属性，将票据利率与同期限同业存单利率做差，可剔除短端流动性的扰动，该指标与信贷增速正相关度较高，当银行一般贷款投放较为充足，即信贷形势较好时，则其购入贴现票据减少，票据市场供大于求会使得利率上行幅度较大；反之，若实体信贷需求较弱，银行往往会通过“冲票据”以保持信贷规模相对稳健，此时贴现票据需求增大，供不应求导致票据利率下行幅度加大，而此时信贷总体形势是偏弱的。
今年6月，票据-同业存单利差（6个月）先升后降，6月9日起数据持续回落，截至6月29日，较月内高点累计回落了64BP。总体看，预计一季度的透支及当前信贷需求的回落可能导致6月信贷同比承压。
信贷结构预计仍是重点支持基建、制造业（尤其是科创、绿色）、普惠小微等领域，地产为边际增量。根据央行4月20日新闻发布会披露数据，一季度基建中长期贷款新增2.16万亿元，同比多增7771亿元；制造业中长期贷款新增1.3万亿元，同比多增6237亿元；房地产业中长期贷款新增6536亿元，同比多增3791亿元。对于基建，我们认为，去年大量重大项目集中开工、加速推进，今年进入施工阶段，对资金的需求量保持稳健；对于制造业，政策持续鼓励银行加大制造业中长期贷款投放，其中，高技术制造业、新能源是侧重点，6月26日，国家发展改革委财金司组织召开扩大制造业中长期贷款投放现场会，会议要求扎实推动金融支持制造业发展提质增效；对于房地产，2022年末地产金融政策转向，“要求落实落细金融支持房地产市场一揽子政策措施”的基调下，地产开发贷、保交楼贷款也为企业中长期贷款贡献增量。
预计6月社融新增3.39万亿，同比大幅少增约1.8万亿，增速较前值降0.7个百分点至8.8%，刷新年内新低，一方面源自去年的高基数，尤其是去年6月专项债额度全部发行完毕，使得6月政府债券项目新增规模高达1.62万亿，另一方面主因今年经济形势走弱，信贷、未贴现银行承兑汇票数据较低。结构中，预计同比拖累主要来自政府债券、信贷、未贴现银行承兑汇票；而企业债券、信托贷款、股票融资及委托贷款或小幅同比多增。
高频数据显示6月政府债券净融资规模约5600亿元，但去年基数为1.62万亿，该项目预计大幅同比少增；对于信贷，预计6月表内非银贷款约-800亿，使得社融口径人民币贷款较信贷口径人民币贷款略高；对于未贴现银行承兑汇票，当前经济走势偏弱，承兑体量不强，且到期量较大，预计数据仍为负值。
对于企业债券，信用债收益率维持低位，6月数据明显改善，不论是环比还是同比维度；对于信托贷款，预计小幅同比多增，主要受地产金融政策影响，“十六条”明确规定“支持开发贷款、信托贷款等存量融资合理展期”，当前金融机构继续积极落实，预计将支撑信托贷款数据，且融资类信托若依据存量比例压降，则每年压降规模也是同比减少的；预计委托贷款走势稳健，边际增量或来自公积金贷款。
对于M2，去年基数逐步走高及今年6月信贷同比较弱、财政支出也受到一定掣肘的情况下，预计6月M2增速较前值回落0.8个百分点至10.8%。对于M1，地产销售低迷、居民消费活跃度分化，去年基数走高，预计6月M1增速较前值继续下行1.6个百分点至3.1%。
总体看，由于去年6月各项金融数据基数均明显上行，我们认为今年6月数据或均有承压，自当前至7月中旬数据发布，将对市场情绪逐步产生影响，提示关注。较弱的数据发布后，叠加经济高频数据同比